UA WRF Forecast Discussions

Synopsis A low pressure system will move eastward across the Southwest generating gusty winds, cool temperatures, and widespread precipitation tomorrow across the state. Strong southwesterly are likely across the lower deserts (including Tucson and Phoenix) tomorrow morning and early afternoon ahead of the primary cold front. Rainfall amounts will range from a few hundredths to 0.25 inches in the lower deserts and between 0.25 and 1 inch over the mountains. Snow levels are expected to remain above 5000 feet with total snowfall amounts between 1 and 6 inches with higher amounts likely over the tallest mountain peaks above 8000 feet. There is a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms tomorrow due to just enough buoyancy, so a few lightning strikes and small hail are possible.  Current Conditions As of 2:45PM MST this afternoon, southwest regional satellite imagery overlaid with 500mb RAP analysis displays an upper level trough off the California Coast, s...

Synopsis An upper level trough moving eastward into the Desert Southwest will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and chances for precipitation across Arizona through Friday evening. Today will be breezy across the state, and precipitation chances will remain mainly confined to the higher terrain of Northern Arizona due to strong orographic enhancement. By late tonight into tomorrow morning, a vorticity maxima will generate widespread valley rain and mountain snow showers across the state. Rainfall amounts will range from a trace to 0.50 inch in the lower deserts and between 0.5 and 1.5 inches over the mountains, with highest amounts over the Mogollon Rim. Snow level will fall to around 4000 feet tomorrow morning with models forecasting a trace to 6 inches between 4000 and 6000 feet and between 6 and 12 inches above 6000 feet with locally higher amounts possible over the tallest peaks of Northern Arizona.  Over the weekend, high amplitude ridging rebuilds into th...