UA WRF Forecast Discussions

  Synopsis Weak ascent induced by an upper level low over Arizona combined with differential heating of terrain and modest buoyancy will be responsible for scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms across the eastern part of the state today. Greatest coverage of precipitation will be mainly confined to the higher terrain with decreased chances in the lower elevations. Showers and storms will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and occasional lightning flashes. Rainfall amounts will be light and highly variable and dependent on storm frequency, coverage, and intensity with UA WRF forecasting a trace to 0.10 inch in the lower deserts and between a trace and 0.25 inches over the higher terrain. Snow levels will remain mainly above 7000 feet with a dusting to 2 inches possible, with highest amounts expected over the White Mountains. Discussion Visible satellite imagery this morning displays scattered, developing cumulus clouds...